The Bookshop Guru
A book review of ‘Future Babble’ by Dan Gardner
This book has no plot,
characters or narrative, but, it is a serious attempt to understand why experts
fail so miserably to provide accurate predictions. Why should we care? Well, it
seems we crave to know the future. Therefore, somewhere in our psyche we want to
understand the complexity of the universe, it’s been hot-wired into our brains
since the day some hairy arse ape decided to stand up. Yet, evolution for all
its mystery and diversity has thrown a curveball through time, we expect to
reason when there is none. As humans we like patterns, for instance, the sun
rises and sets every day which is a pattern, and throughout the evolution of
man the brain has become accustomed to pattern recognition. In fact, our brains
are so tuned to order that we find randomness difficult to accept.
I chose to buy this book
after reading a couple of chapters, partly because I was interested in the
psychology of why we believe experts, and, also to learn what conclusions can be
deduced from Dan Gardner’s findings. I found the conclusions illuminating, but
the proposition wasn’t tested scientifically in my opinion. Most of the experts
were from western civilisations so the sampling was flawed, but it is still a
valid conjecture based on how experts make assumptions about the future of such
things as, the oil price, stock markets, population demographics, the collapse
of political regimes, climate change and much more, yet, they make the wrong
assumptions.
Are you a hedgehog or a
fox? Dan Gardner uses the metaphor most experts are hedgehogs because they are usually over confident and ‘they are more likely to declare outcomes ‘certain
or impossible’ could they be wrong? Never!’ The analogy is lost on me, other
than, hedgehogs are prickly and foxes cuddly. Whereas the foxes, are individuals
that are willing to admit when they are wrong and less likely to commit to
predictions too far into the future.
Interestingly, a study
of a group of scientific reviewers found that papers submitted before
publication for peer review in academic journals were bias, even though the
reviewers did not know they were being tested at the time of the study. So, before you get on your soapbox, remember you’re more likely to be bias than you
have brain cells.
A good read.
Are you listening, what are you dreaming?
As Jesus said, “belief is everything.”
In my latest book “It’s Never Too Late” read how dreams do come true, but be careful what you wish for. Understand the secret of greed and you will attain one of the secrets of prosperity. The book will also take you on a journey and explores love, money, luck, and much more.
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Hey, Chuck. Did you bring any spending money? Viva la vida loca.
Conducting Survey into Precognitive Choices
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